Emergent Markets: Environmental trends


From 7 May 2024, The North East Evidence Hub is a project of the North East Combined Authority. Find out more at northeast-ca.gov.uk/north-east-lep Search Search Home Spotlight Analysis Evidence by Theme News & Commentary Economic Markets : Environmental trends Trends that are changing the natural environment and our relationship to it, including climate change, identified through our economic forsighting project HomeCurrent Page Future trends : Environmental The global trends described on this page were all identified as ‘high impact’ trends in our economic market’s foresight project. They are classified as high impact because they are deemed likely to coverage with other trends pushing market growth in a common direction. Environmental change is primarily being driven by climate change, which is degrading many natural environments and increasing the intensity and duration of extreme weather events. It is also driving biodiversity loss and a sense of environmental urgency. All the wider trends described on our BEETS pages are developing in the context of climate change. In many cases climate change is creating demand for new technological developments, such as electric vehicles. In some other cases climate change will create new challenges to supply chains and ways of living. {{element.textContent}} Page Menu {{element.textContent}} Biodiversity loss Biodiversity is critically important to human health, economies and livelihoods. A million species will be threatened with extinction within the next few decades and according to the World Economic Forum, and more than half of the world’s GDP ($44 trillion) is highly or moderately dependent on nature. In the past decade, funding for UK wildlife and the environment has dropped by 30%, which means habitats may not be being created, protected or monitored sufficiently. The UK could lose £16billion in economic output every year should measures to enhance biodiversity and reverse nature's decline not be pursued. A focus on the restoration economy and ecosystem services could also create new jobs and business opportunities. Useful further reading Agri and food production causing huge biodiversity loss - Poultry World Biodiversity and sustainable cities \| BNP Paribas Real Estate Poultry agri-tech firms win funding to boost sustainability - Poultry World Climate change Climate change is leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. It is a major driver behind the loss of biodiversity which threatens global health and livelihoods. The UK is experiencing widespread changes in the climate; average land temperature has risen by around 1.2°C from pre-industrial levels, UK sea levels have risen by 16cm since 1900 and episodes of extreme heat are becoming more frequent. The implications and disruption caused by rising temperatures, extreme weather, rising sea levels and the spread of non-indigenous species (and the diseases they carry) are highly uncertain and difficult to predict. The climate system is complex, as are its interactions with humanity. The scale of the human response and technological progress required to halt climate change is uncertain. In addition, abrupt climate transitions have occurred in Earth’s history, the timing and likelihood of which cannot generally be foreseen. All of these factors mean that we have little certainty about consequences of climate change, even in the medium term. In the UK, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has noted that action to improve the nation’s resilience is failing to keep pace with the impacts of a warming planet and increasing climate risks facing the UK. Useful further reading UK struggling to keep pace with climate change impacts - Climate Change Committee (theccc.org.uk) Environmental urgency Awareness of the changes in the environment has grown and will likely increase further as the impacts become more visible. The Covid-19 pandemic has further highlighted the urgency of the crisis. While this has resulted in a wide range of policies aimed at addressing climate change impacts, the world is still living unsustainably, and biodiversity loss and climate change have continued. Younger generations could change this trajectory, as they are more aware of the urgency of the crisis and are also more likely to hold businesses to account to protect the environment. Nations and companies will pursue zero-carbon strategies, which include reducing emissions through renewable energy, the electrification of transport and reducing emissions from agriculture, as well as carbon upcycling technologies and removing carbon from the atmosphere. Sustainble materials These materials are environmentally friendly, sustainable and recyclable and prevent pollution or provide carbon capture. One large market for sustainable materials is the construction industry. Building materials constitute a $1 trillion industry worldwide, however, less than one-third (20–30%) of construction and demolition waste is recovered. As policies and business practices mature, companies will be required to adopt closed-loop design principles into their material portfolio and business models. At the end of 2020, UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) announced five new centres as part of a £22.5 million government investment that will explore how reusing waste materials in the textiles, construction, chemical and metal industries could deliver environmental benefits and boost the UK economy. The focus on sustainability, efficiency and cost will trigger demand for cutting-edge technologies and materials. Useful further reading Global Mega Trends to 2030, Growth, Forecast, share & Size (frost.com) Further future trends Business model transformations High impact trends that are changing the way businesses across all sectors operate Find out more Economic and political shifts Macro trends that are changing the business environment in the economic and political spheres Find out more Technological shifts Trends which demonstrate how innovation and discovery are set to change the business landscape Find out more Societal and demographic changes Societal trends that are changing customer attitudes and employee perspectives Find out more Economic markets foresight report Taking a fresh look at global trends and economic markets that present opportunities for future regional growth in the North East LEP area Find out more Mapping trends to markets Exploring how future trends are driving growth in North East markets Find out more

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Future trends : Environmental

The global trends described on this page were all identified as ‘high impact’ trends in our economic market’s foresight project. They are classified as high impact because they are deemed likely to coverage with other trends pushing market growth in a common direction.

Environmental change is primarily being driven by climate change, which is degrading many natural environments and increasing the intensity and duration of extreme weather events. It is also driving biodiversity loss and a sense of environmental urgency.

All the wider trends described on our BEETS pages are developing in the context of climate change. In many cases climate change is creating demand for new technological developments, such as electric vehicles. In some other cases climate change will create new challenges to supply chains and ways of living.

Biodiversity loss

Biodiversity is critically important to human health, economies and livelihoods. A million species will be threatened with extinction within the next few decades and according to the World Economic Forum, and more than half of the world’s GDP ($44 trillion) is highly or moderately dependent on nature. In the past decade, funding for UK wildlife and the environment has dropped by 30%, which means habitats may not be being created, protected or monitored sufficiently. The UK could lose £16billion in economic output every year should measures to enhance biodiversity and reverse nature's decline not be pursued. A focus on the restoration economy and ecosystem services could also create new jobs and business opportunities.

Useful further reading

Climate change

Climate change is leading to an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. It is a major driver behind the loss of biodiversity which threatens global health and livelihoods. The UK is experiencing widespread changes in the climate; average land temperature has risen by around 1.2°C from pre-industrial levels, UK sea levels have risen by 16cm since 1900 and episodes of extreme heat are becoming more frequent. The implications and disruption caused by rising temperatures, extreme weather, rising sea levels and the spread of non-indigenous species (and the diseases they carry) are highly uncertain and difficult to predict. The climate system is complex, as are its interactions with humanity.

The scale of the human response and technological progress required to halt climate change is uncertain. In addition, abrupt climate transitions have occurred in Earth’s history, the timing and likelihood of which cannot generally be foreseen. All of these factors mean that we have little certainty about consequences of climate change, even in the medium term. In the UK, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has noted that action to improve the nation’s resilience is failing to keep pace with the impacts of a warming planet and increasing climate risks facing the UK.

Useful further reading

UK struggling to keep pace with climate change impacts - Climate Change Committee (theccc.org.uk)

Environmental urgency

Awareness of the changes in the environment has grown and will likely increase further as the impacts become more visible. The Covid-19 pandemic has further highlighted the urgency of the crisis. While this has resulted in a wide range of policies aimed at addressing climate change impacts, the world is still living unsustainably, and biodiversity loss and climate change have continued. Younger generations could change this trajectory, as they are more aware of the urgency of the crisis and are also more likely to hold businesses to account to protect the environment. Nations and companies will pursue zero-carbon strategies, which include reducing emissions through renewable energy, the electrification of transport and reducing emissions from agriculture, as well as carbon upcycling technologies and removing carbon from the atmosphere.

Sustainble materials

These materials are environmentally friendly, sustainable and recyclable and prevent pollution or provide carbon capture. One large market for sustainable materials is the construction industry. Building materials constitute a $1 trillion industry worldwide, however, less than one-third (20–30%) of construction and demolition waste is recovered. As policies and business practices mature, companies will be required to adopt closed-loop design principles into their material portfolio and business models. At the end of 2020, UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) announced five new centres as part of a £22.5 million government investment that will explore how reusing waste materials in the textiles, construction, chemical and metal industries could deliver environmental benefits and boost the UK economy. The focus on sustainability, efficiency and cost will trigger demand for cutting-edge technologies and materials.