Economic Markets : Technological shifts Trends which demonstrate how innovation and discovery are set to change the business landscape identified through our economic forsighting project Future trends : Technological shiftsThe global trends described on this page were all identified as ‘high impact’ trends in our economic market’s foresight project. They are classified as high impact because they are deemed likely to coverage with other trends pushing market growth in a common direction. Technological changes are always one of the primary drivers of market change. However, technology is not developed in a vacuum but in response to wider economic and social conditions. Many emerging technological changes are being accelerated by wider trends.
For instance, demand from businesses and skills shortages are driving developments in artificial intelligence, advanced computing, and the internet of things. Environmental change is creating a new impetus to further develop technologies such as battery recycling and electric vehicles. In turn technological trends enable new modes of living and doing business, such as facilitating e-commerce and digital lifestyles.
Advanced computingAdvanced computing refers to the transformation of traditional computing architecture to include brain computing interfaces, advanced AI, neuromorphic, DNA and quantum computing. The first commercial general-purpose quantum computers are expected to appear in the 2030s, with the market for quantum computing projected to reach $50 billion by 2035. Quantum computing could impact many sectors, including healthcare, energy, finance, security, and entertainment. While most industries have the potential to undergo a significant transformation in the near future by adopting advanced computing, the implications and development of these technologies remain highly uncertain, and significant practical challenges need to be overcome before large-scale impact is achievable. Useful further reading
Advanced manufacturingAdvanced manufacturing practices will be driven by innovations in technology, robotics, automation, electrification and artificial intelligence. Advanced manufacturing involves more flexible, efficient and responsive production methods. Internet of Things solutions are moving towards integrating machines, services, and products leveraging big data analytics to obtain useful data through intelligent networks. In the UK, organisations such as the Advanced Manufacturing Research Centre specialise in carrying out world-leading research into advanced machining, manufacturing and materials.
Advanced materialsAdvanced materials include self-healing materials, nanomaterials, 4G and 5G materials, anti-viral surfaces, alternative proteins and phygital packaging. The UK is the home of graphene and other disruptive developments in advanced materials which underpin many high-tech industrial sectors, such as the automotive, aerospace, defence, medical, electronics and energy industries, and are important to the UK’s economic growth. The emerging materials sector is predicted to have much higher growth than traditional materials sectors. This will likely be of benefit to the UK, which excels at discovering new materials and has a large community of start-ups and SMEs working to commercialise them. Materials are also a crucial part of a balanced UK economy, with many companies and value generated in the West Midlands, as well as a large contribution from the North West and North East. Useful further reading
Artifical intelligence The cost of computing power is expected to fall by a factor of 10 every 10 years. This will enable a transition from artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) towards artificial general intelligence (AGI). AI is expected to add $15 trillion to the global economy by 2030, with some estimates suggesting that over 50% of jobs in the western world could be automated by AI by this point. The implications of advancing AI in this timeframe are highly uncertain. In the medium term, the use of AI will still be aimed at augmenting human intelligence through ML and DL rather than replacing humans entirely. However, the speed of technological change means that the economic and social impacts of AI are very difficult to predict. While advanced AI could solve a number of complex issues, it could also result in an array of negative or unintended consequences. For example, the disparate investment and implementation of AI across countries could widen global inequalities and lead to unethical applications. Useful further reading
Autonomous vehiclesThe uptake and speed of technological development of autonomous vehicles is still fairly uncertain, but it is expected that we will see Level 4 vehicles (fully autonomous driving, where a human driver can still request control, but the car can handle the majority of driving situations independently) dominate in terms of market penetration through 2030. Fully autonomous vehicles will be introduced around the same time. The total market for privately-owned autonomous vehicles is expected to reach $60 billion by 2030. In the UK, connected and autonomous vehicles could create an additional 320,000 jobs by 2030, 25,000 of which would be in automotive manufacturing. They could also save over 2,500 lives and prevent more than 25,000 serious accidents in the UK. Useful further reading
Battery recyclingBattery recycling is the process of recycling batteries through pyro, hydro, and direct recycling methods, which are intended to reduce the volume of batteries being disposed of as solid waste and to extract valuable components to be reused. If not done, some raw materials like lithium could become rare and expensive. In the UK, projections are that there will be approximately 1.4 million EV battery packs coming to the end of their “useful life” every year by 2040. In the future, rechargeable batteries may last so long that they will never need to be replaced. Researchers at the University of California Irvine (UCI) have developed a nanowire-based battery material that can be recharged hundreds of thousands of times, and would potentially never need replacement. If this invention can be implemented on a wider scale, it will cause a revolution within the battery manufacturing industry as well as in the development of battery technology. Useful further reading
Digital lifestylesWhile fossil fuels have dominated the transportation sector for the last century, electricity will play an increasingly important role in both personal and public surface transport in the future. Approximately 125 million EVs are expected to be on the road by 2025, constituting 23% of the global passenger vehicle market. The UK will not sell any more cars with conventional petrol or diesel engines by 2040. The UK is amongst the top electric vehicle (BEV+PHEV) markets in Europe, with 32,000 EVs registered in the first quarter of 2020. However, electrifying transport will inevitably increase demand pressure on the grid and energy supply. In addition, there could be disruption from other forms of power generation including hydrogen, formic acid (CO2+hydrogen), green ammonia, methane fuel and biodiesel. Useful further reading
Edge computingEdge computing refers to the processing and storing of data near its point of origin to reduce latency, improve data security and possibly also lower costs. Low latency and decentralised servers will boost the power and spread of Internet of Things devices. Reduced latency is essential, for example, in autonomous vehicles, where a process delay of even a fraction of a second may prove to be fatal. Edge computing technology can play a crucial role in driving efficiencies and supporting the future development of businesses and industries. It will also accelerate the development of smart cities. Useful further reading
Integrated mobilityIntegrated mobility refers to the use a combination of transport services, including micro-mobility solutions, shared services and public transportation for the most effective commute. Intelligent transport systems and technologies allow transport modes to communicate with each other and with the wider environment, paving the way for truly integrated transport solutions and experiences. Changing urban mobility trends among younger generations broadly reflects a growing preference for biking, walking, public transport, and shared mobility services over car ownership. As a result, OEMs are moving towards mobility-as-a-service to make up for losses incurred from vehicle sales.
NBIC clusterNanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science (NBIC) are a set of converging technologies that broadly have the potential to improve human performance. Change is occurring especially rapidly in these areas and the NBIC cluster is likely to be a major driver of innovation and growth, changing the ways in which we work, live and communicate. However, NBIC technologies also present significant risks, including bio-engineering pandemics, the misuse of molecular nanotechnology, unfriendly artificial intelligence. Useful further reading
Robotic workersEnabled by AI, robotics in future industries will focus on reducing human effort by performing complex actions autonomously. Cobots can already perform high-precision, repetitive tasks, freeing up human workers to focus on other essential, more nuanced work. Covid-19 has led to an automation boom in many industries including healthcare. Studies indicate that 28% of healthcare staff time is spent on non-clinical, repetitive tasks and there is high demand for increased automation of mundane and repetitive tasks such as collecting samples and delivering supplies. These robots can perform a range of skilled and less skilled work including robotic surgery, diagnostics, cleaning and disinfecting, medication delivery and dispensing, telepresence and remote monitoring, companionship and rehabilitation through advanced prosthetics and exoskeletons. The Covid-19 pandemic has rapidly accelerated the take up of cleaning and disinfecting robots, as well as robots that do preliminary checks on people such as taking temperatures. Industries are adopting robots to various degrees, but we are likely to see a large impact on jobs over the timeframe. Useful further reading
Smart cities & infrastructureSmart cities are built on intelligent technology and solutions covering a range of areas including smart governance and education, smart healthcare, smart buildings, smart mobility, smart infrastructure, smart technology, smart energy, and smart citizens. It is estimated that the smart city market will be valued at $2.4 trillion in 2025. Out of this share, 47.5% of projects will be in the smart energy, infrastructure, and building spaces. The market growth can be attributed to the growing adoption of technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing, cognitive computing, big data analytics, and open data. The Future Cities Catapult has identified more than 32,000 companies in the UK that offer solutions for the Smart Cities market. The potential for growth is large, with UK companies well positioned to provide services and expertise to cities globally. Useful further reading
Space connectivityNew investments in the Space Industry across the value chain suggest there is potential for an exponential expansion of the space industry ecosystem. Over 11,600 small satellites will be launched by 2030, either through dedicated services or ridesharing. In theory, a system of small, inexpensive satellites could cover the planet in high-speed internet connectivity, enabling internet service providers to beam signals directly into homes, removing the need for costly fibre optic cables. Low-latency, high-bandwidth global connectivity would speed up next-generation network applications. Increasing investment in space will impact a range of industries including automotive, telecommunications, manufacturing and construction. Space is one of the UK’s fastest growing sectors, trebling in size since 2010 and supporting 41,900 jobs. Useful further reading
Further future trends |
